Here are our predictions.  Do you think we are right?

 

Compared with Denver’s $2 million–$4 million segment, we would handicap them as follows:

Area

Likelihood of outperforming Denver appreciation

Prime Bachelor Gulch

55%–60%

Prime Beaver Creek

50%–55%

Exceptional Lake Creek

50%–55%

Arrowhead

Approximately 50%

Singletree

45%–50%

Cordillera

40%–45%

These probabilities assume a sound purchase basis and no major property defect. They do not include lifestyle use, rental revenue or carrying costs.

 

Bottom line

Our Vail Valley conclusions ar most applicable to Beaver Creek and Bachelor Gulch, moderately applicable to Arrowhead and Lake Creek, and less applicable to Singletree and Cordillera.

 

For the coming five years, our risk-adjusted preferences would be:

  1. Prime Beaver Creek or Bachelor Gulch for resort scarcity and national demand.
  2. Lake Creek for land and legacy-estate scarcity.
  3. Singletree for steady year-round demand and liquidity.
  4. Arrowhead for relative value with ski access.
  5. Cordillera for selective value opportunities rather than broad market appreciation.

 

The most important caveat is that the difference between a strong and weak property within one of these communities may exceed the difference between the communities themselves. 

 

A renovated ski-access Arrowhead residence may outperform a dated Beaver Creek condo with major assessment exposure, just as a contemporary Cordillera home bought below replacement cost may outperform an over-improved Singletree property.